We all probably know that climate change is a naturally
occurring reality. Naturally, it should take hundreds and thousands of years to
occur giving biological and human systems time to adapt to the change.
However, that is no longer our reality. The new reality is that
95% of human activities have exacerbated climate change and now we have only
“yesterday” to adapt to these changes. The question therefore is, can humanity
cope?
Here are some quick estimates that should interest you:
·
The world population
will have hit 9.6billion
·
Food security will
have hit an all-time low
·
Ocean acidity, which
has already exceeded its historic bounds of PH measurements, will be
immeasurable
·
A lot of ocean life
will perhaps be a memory
 |
Piles of mussels (Mytilus edulis) washed onto a beach after a dead zone
event in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island. (Andrew Altieri/Smithsonian)
Furthermore, the mean annual climate will slip into the most
extreme conditions ever experienced. And a lot of human life will perhaps be a
memory too. The world will be a whole new environment and we could be at its
mercy.
Other projections
The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization released a
set of mock television “weather reports from the future” to show how climate
change could drastically affect life on Earth in 2050. The three reports show
how climate change would make Europe a frying pan, bring massive flooding to
Southeast Asia and cause dangerous weather fluctuations in South America. In
Japan alone, 6,500 weather-related deaths were predicted in 2050.
In Australia, change is likely to come earlier than the global
average, with Sydney to see unprecedented change by 2038. Brisbane and Perth
follow in 2042, and Melbourne and Canberra in 2045.
Near future projections in Asia show China, Pakistan and Turkey,
the region’s major producers of wheat and maize, as most affected by the
droughts. Asia has the world’s largest population and food producers.
Also not forgetting, the Tropics, which contain the planet’s
richest diversity of species as well as the poorest countries, of which Uganda
“the Banana Republic” included, will be among the first to see the climate
exceed its historical limits as early as 2020.
With many tropical nations being major food suppliers (including
fish) to global markets, the global economy is bound to be disrupted even
before historic climate changes take on industrialized countries.
The onset of global crop failures around the world in the 2020s
will affect the global economy and consequently destabilize the geopolitical
system.
Uganda climate outlook
In the meantime, countries like Uganda with
meager financing will suffer every weather change that befalls them.
Uganda’s Parliamentary Forum for Climate Change (PFCC) says it lacks
financing to mitigate these effects in time. Even though it acknowledges that
climate change is the economy’s number one threat, PFCC’s position is that it
will start to integrate climate change guidelines in the 2015/2016 budget.
The irony, however, is that there has been a downward spiral in
the budget allocation for climate change since 2013/2014 seeing as only
Ug.shs.13billion was allocated to this sector from the previous
Ug.shs.71.8billion in 2011/2012. In fact those budget allocations have
declined to Ug.shs8.39 billion in 2014/15 and even more cuts expected in
2015/2016 to UGX6.84 billion.
The floods in western Uganda, landslides and floods in the East,
droughts in the eastern and northern end have been predicted to get even more intense.
But in Uganda, our government is accustomed to only acting after the disaster
has occurred.
Floods in Northern Uganda – Lira district
Western Uganda – Kasese district (pictures courtesy of BBC)
Way Forward
But now that we know as a matter of fact that we’re going to get
record-breaking floods, record-breaking droughts, record-breaking landslides,
and so on, here’s what our government should do:
1.
Implement mitigation
efforts that will buy Ugandans the time they need to cope with these changes.”
2.
Practically engage
locals in activities combating climate change effects like reforestation.
Students from Aterai Primary school being encouraged and taught
how to plant trees to combat climate change effects in Kumi, Uganda. Picture
courtesy of Green Teso Initiative
3.
Create adaptation
mechanisms for the locals
4.
Work with the
international community to curb this impending global catastrophe
It is sound to conclude that we are in a state of climatic
change emergency and commensurate mitigation and adaptation must be taken.
Policy makers therefore need to focus on climate change as “a
now thing” and not “a future thing” because its impacts have already started
changing our environment.
Shabella Patience Agodo
